AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 23-1022.00
Will AI replace Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators?
Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators: AI can already handle 3 of 20 tasks; the work mostly needs a standard-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 20 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators, from most to least exposed. 3 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apply relevant laws, regulations, policies, or precedents to reach conclusions. | Observed | Standard | |
| Evaluate information from documents, such as claim applications, birth or death certificates, or physician or employer records. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Recommend acceptance or rejection of compromise settlement offers. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Confer with disputants to clarify issues, identify underlying concerns, and develop an understanding of their respective needs and interests. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Specialize in the negotiation and resolution of environmental conflicts involving issues such as natural resource allocation or regional development planning. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Prepare written opinions or decisions regarding cases. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Conduct hearings to obtain information or evidence relative to disposition of claims. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Determine extent of liability according to evidence, laws, or administrative or judicial precedents. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Rule on exceptions, motions, or admissibility of evidence. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Use mediation techniques to facilitate communication between disputants, to further parties' understanding of different perspectives, and to guide parties toward mutual agreement. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Conduct initial meetings with disputants to outline the arbitration process, settle procedural matters, such as fees, or determine details, such as witness numbers or time requirements. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Research laws, regulations, policies, or precedent decisions to prepare for hearings. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Issue subpoenas or administer oaths to prepare for formal hearings. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Set up appointments for parties to meet for mediation. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Interview claimants, agents, or witnesses to obtain information about disputed issues. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Conduct studies of appeals procedures to ensure adherence to legal requirements or to facilitate disposition of cases. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Prepare settlement agreements for disputants to sign. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Authorize payment of valid claims. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Organize or deliver public presentations about mediation to organizations, such as community agencies or schools. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Participate in court proceedings. | Estimated | Efficient |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 1 of 20 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 19 of 20. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A standard-tier model or lower covers 91% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 100% of the work is something AI can address at some tier.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 9,210
- Median annual wage
- $75,530
- Middle half of earners
- $57,360 to $108,000
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +4.3%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Administrative Law Judges, Adjudicators, and Hearing Officers 62% skill overlap, about 14 months to move Exposure72
- Labor Relations Specialists 61% skill overlap, about 14 months to move Exposure48
- Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates 59% skill overlap, about 15 months to move Exposure34
- Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators 54% skill overlap, about 17 months to move Exposure69
- Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials 51% skill overlap, about 18 months to move Exposure60
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators and AI
Will AI replace Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators?
AI already handles 3 of the 20 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 38 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +4.3% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators?
38 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 1 of the 20 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 19 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Apply relevant laws, regulations, policies, or precedents to reach conclusions; Evaluate information from documents, such as claim applications, birth or death certificates, or physician or employer records; Recommend acceptance or rejection of compromise settlement offers. They are the tasks that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A standard-tier model or lower covers 91% of the role's importance-weighted task work. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators, and what do they earn?
9,210 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $75,530 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +4.3% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/arbitrators-mediators-and-conciliators
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