AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 27-2023.00
Will AI replace Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials?
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials: AI can already handle 11 of 16 tasks; the work mostly needs a frontier-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 16 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials, from most to least exposed. 11 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verify scoring calculations before competition winners are announced. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Compile scores and other athletic records. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Verify credentials of participants in sporting events, and make other qualifying determinations, such as starting order or handicap number. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Judge performances in sporting competitions to award points, impose scoring penalties, and determine results. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Signal participants or other officials to make them aware of infractions or to otherwise regulate play or competition. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Start races and competitions. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Keep track of event times, including race times and elapsed time during game segments, starting or stopping play when necessary. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Direct participants to assigned areas, such as starting blocks or penalty areas. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Report to regulating organizations regarding sporting activities, complaints made, and actions taken or needed, such as fines or other disciplinary actions. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Research and study players and teams to anticipate issues that might arise in future engagements. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Resolve claims of rule infractions or complaints by participants and assess any necessary penalties, according to regulations. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Confer with other sporting officials, coaches, players, and facility managers to provide information, coordinate activities, and discuss problems. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Teach and explain the rules and regulations governing a specific sport. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Officiate at sporting events, games, or competitions, to maintain standards of play and to ensure that game rules are observed. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Inspect game sites for compliance with regulations or safety requirements. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Inspect sporting equipment or examine participants to ensure compliance with event and safety regulations. | Estimated | Efficient |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 16 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 16 of 16. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 100% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 100% of the work is something AI can address at some tier.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 15,780
- Median annual wage
- $40,710
- Middle half of earners
- $32,260 to $57,160
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +5.7%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Athletes and Sports Competitors 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure58
- Coaches and Scouts 63% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure43
- Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates 56% skill overlap, about 16 months to move Exposure34
- Sports Medicine Physicians 55% skill overlap, about 16 months to move Exposure48
- Gambling and Sports Book Writers and Runners 55% skill overlap, about 16 months to move Exposure35
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials and AI
Will AI replace Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials?
AI already handles 11 of the 16 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 60 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +5.7% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials?
60 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 16 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 16 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Verify scoring calculations before competition winners are announced; Compile scores and other athletic records; Verify credentials of participants in sporting events, and make other qualifying determinations, such as starting order or handicap number. They are three of the 11 tasks that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 100% of the role's importance-weighted task work. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials, and what do they earn?
15,780 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $40,710 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +5.7% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/umpires-referees-and-other-sports-officials
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