AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 51-1011.00
Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers: AI can already handle 6 of 20 tasks; the work mostly needs a frontier-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 20 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, from most to least exposed. 6 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Interpret specifications, blueprints, job orders, and company policies and procedures for workers. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Evaluate employee performance. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Recommend or implement measures to motivate employees and to improve production methods, equipment performance, product quality, or efficiency. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Recommend or execute personnel actions, such as hirings, evaluations, or promotions. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Plan and develop new products and production processes. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals. | Observed | Efficient | |
| Conduct employee training in equipment operations or work and safety procedures, or assign employee training to experienced workers. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Maintain operations data, such as time, production, and cost records, and prepare management reports of production results. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Requisition materials, supplies, equipment parts, or repair services. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Enforce safety and sanitation regulations. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Keep records of employees' attendance and hours worked. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Confer with management or subordinates to resolve worker problems, complaints, or grievances. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Set up and adjust machines and equipment. | Estimated | No tier |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 1 of 20 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 19 of 20. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 69% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 69% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 31% is hands-on.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 673,430
- Median annual wage
- $74,450
- Middle half of earners
- $58,630 to $91,680
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +1.2%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers 77% skill overlap, about 8 months to move Exposure28
- First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators 75% skill overlap, about 9 months to move Exposure34
- First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 74% skill overlap, about 9 months to move Exposure49
- First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand 74% skill overlap, about 9 months to move Exposure30
- First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers 73% skill overlap, about 10 months to move Exposure38
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers and AI
Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?
AI already handles 6 of the 20 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 38 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +1.2% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?
38 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 1 of the 20 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 19 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas; Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs; Interpret specifications, blueprints, job orders, and company policies and procedures for workers. They are three of the 6 tasks that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 69% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 31% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, and what do they earn?
673,430 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $74,450 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +1.2% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-production-and-operating-workers
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