AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 47-2031.00

Will AI replace Carpenters?

Carpenters: AI can already handle 2 of 29 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs an efficient-tier model.

Have a team in this role?

Get your free 10-role sample: send this role and up to nine others, and a founder sends a board-pack PDF within two business days.

Get your free 10-role sample Book a 15-minute call

Every task, scored

The 29 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Carpenters, from most to least exposed. 2 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.

Task AI exposure Evidence Model tier Importance
Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level. 80 Estimated Standard 4.2
Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports. 74 Observed Standard 3.9
Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required. 50 Estimated Efficient 4.4
Anchor and brace forms and other structures in place, using nails, bolts, anchor rods, steel cables, planks, wedges, and timbers. 50 Estimated Efficient 3.7
Follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean environment. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.7
Build or repair cabinets, doors, frameworks, floors, or other wooden fixtures used in buildings, using woodworking machines, carpenter's hand tools, or power tools. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.1
Inspect ceiling or floor tile, wall coverings, siding, glass, or woodwork to detect broken or damaged structures. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.1
Install structures or fixtures, such as windows, frames, floorings, trim, or hardware, using carpenters' hand or power tools. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.0
Remove damaged or defective parts or sections of structures and repair or replace, using hand tools. 20 Estimated Efficient 3.9
Maintain job records and schedule work crew. 20 Estimated Efficient 3.8
Install rough door and window frames, subflooring, fixtures, or temporary supports in structures undergoing construction or repair. 20 Estimated Efficient 3.5
Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge. 15 Estimated No tier 4.6
Assemble and fasten materials to make frameworks or props, using hand tools and wood screws, nails, dowel pins, or glue. 15 Estimated No tier 4.4
Shape or cut materials to specified measurements, using hand tools, machines, or power saws. 15 Estimated No tier 4.4
Cover subfloors with building paper to keep out moisture and lay hardwood, parquet, or wood-strip-block floors by nailing floors to subfloor or cementing them to mastic or asphalt base. 15 Estimated No tier 4.2
Construct forms or chutes for pouring concrete. 15 Estimated No tier 4.1
Arrange for subcontractors to deal with special areas, such as heating or electrical wiring work. 15 Estimated No tier 4.1
Erect scaffolding or ladders for assembling structures above ground level. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Finish surfaces of woodwork or wallboard in houses or buildings, using paint, hand tools, or paneling. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Select and order lumber or other required materials. 15 Estimated No tier 3.9
Work with or remove hazardous material. 15 Estimated No tier 3.9
Fill cracks or other defects in plaster or plasterboard and sand patch, using patching plaster, trowel, and sanding tool. 15 Estimated No tier 3.8
Prepare cost estimates for clients or employers. 15 Estimated No tier 3.7
Bore boltholes in timber, masonry or concrete walls, using power drill. 15 Estimated No tier 3.6
Perform minor plumbing, welding, or concrete mixing work. 15 Estimated No tier 3.3
Dig or direct digging of post holes and set poles to support structures. 15 Estimated No tier 3.1
Apply shock-absorbing, sound-deadening, or decorative paneling to ceilings or walls. 15 Estimated No tier 2.9
Examine structural timbers and supports to detect decay, and replace timbers as required, using hand tools, nuts, and bolts. 15 Estimated No tier 2.7
Build sleds from logs and timbers for use in hauling camp buildings and machinery through wooded areas. 15 Estimated No tier 1.4

Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 1 of 29 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 28 of 29. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.

The model tier this role needs

An efficient-tier model or lower covers 33% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 40% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 60% is hands-on.

Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.

Wages, employment and outlook

US employment
670,090
Median annual wage
$60,580
Middle half of earners
$48,510 to $76,830
Projected change, 2024 to 2034
+4.5%

Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.

Adjacent roles

The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.

Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.

Questions about Carpenters and AI

Will AI replace Carpenters?

AI already handles 2 of the 29 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 23 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +4.5% from 2024 to 2034.

What is the AI exposure of Carpenters?

23 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 1 of the 29 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 28 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.

Which Carpenters tasks can AI already do?

The tasks with the highest exposure are: Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level; Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports. They are the tasks that reach 60 or more.

What AI model tier does this role need?

An efficient-tier model or lower covers 33% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 60% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.

How many people work as Carpenters, and what do they earn?

670,090 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $60,580 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +4.5% from 2024 to 2034.

How to cite

Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.

JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Carpenters. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/carpenters

Have a team in this role?

Get your free 10-role sample. Send this role and up to nine others, with no employee data, and a founder sends a PDF in board-pack format within two business days.

Get your free 10-role sample Book a 15-minute call

A founder replies within one business day.