AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 53-3052.00
Will AI replace Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?
Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity: AI can already handle 1 of 14 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs a standard-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 14 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity, from most to least exposed. 1 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advise passengers to be seated and orderly while on vehicles. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Read maps to plan bus routes. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Inspect vehicles and check gas, oil, and water levels prior to departure. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Maintain cleanliness of bus or motor coach. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Announce stops to passengers. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Handle passenger emergencies or disruptions. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Report delays or accidents. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Load and unload baggage in baggage compartments. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Assist passengers, such as elderly or individuals with disabilities, on and off bus, ensure they are seated properly, help carry baggage, and answer questions about bus schedules or routes. | Estimated | No tier |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 14 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 14 of 14. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A standard-tier model or lower covers 35% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 35% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 65% is hands-on.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 159,240
- Median annual wage
- $59,050
- Middle half of earners
- $47,530 to $70,700
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +4.3%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Bus Drivers, School 73% skill overlap, about 10 months to move Exposure16
- Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure15
- Taxi Drivers 65% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure15
- Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 64% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure21
- Subway and Streetcar Operators 63% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure19
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity and AI
Will AI replace Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?
AI already handles 1 of the 14 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 20 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +4.3% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?
20 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 14 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 14 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Advise passengers to be seated and orderly while on vehicles. It is the only task that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A standard-tier model or lower covers 35% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 65% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity, and what do they earn?
159,240 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $59,050 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +4.3% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/bus-drivers-transit-and-intercity
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