AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 53-3051.00

Will AI replace Bus Drivers, School?

Bus Drivers, School: AI does not yet handle any of the role's 17 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs an efficient-tier model.

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Every task, scored

The 17 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Bus Drivers, School, from most to least exposed. None reaches 60, the level at which AI already handles a task.

Task AI exposure Evidence Model tier Importance
Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.8
Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.5
Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.4
Make minor repairs to vehicles. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.1
Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner. 15 Estimated No tier 5.0
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order. 15 Estimated No tier 4.9
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops. 15 Estimated No tier 4.9
Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules. 15 Estimated No tier 4.8
Escort small children across roads and highways. 15 Estimated No tier 4.8
Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption. 15 Estimated No tier 4.4
Record bus routes. 15 Estimated No tier 4.2
Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios. 15 Estimated No tier 4.2
Keep bus interiors clean for students. 15 Estimated No tier 4.2
Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions. 15 Estimated No tier 4.1
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration. 15 Estimated No tier 3.8
Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities. 8 Estimated No tier 4.7

Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 17 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 17 of 17. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.

The model tier this role needs

An efficient-tier model or lower covers 24% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 24% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 77% is hands-on.

Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.

Wages, employment and outlook

US employment
402,930
Median annual wage
$47,920
Middle half of earners
$38,650 to $58,430
Projected change, 2024 to 2034
+0.2%

Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.

Adjacent roles

The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.

Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.

Questions about Bus Drivers, School and AI

Will AI replace Bus Drivers, School?

Not on current evidence. None of the 17 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation reaches a task exposure of 60, the level at which JobRoute counts a task as handled by AI, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 16 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears.

What is the AI exposure of Bus Drivers, School?

16 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 17 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 17 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.

Which Bus Drivers, School tasks can AI already do?

None reaches 60 yet. The most exposed task is: Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs, at 20 out of 100.

What AI model tier does this role need?

An efficient-tier model or lower covers 24% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 77% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.

How many people work as Bus Drivers, School, and what do they earn?

402,930 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $47,920 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +0.2% from 2024 to 2034.

How to cite

Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.

JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Bus Drivers, School. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/bus-drivers-school

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