AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 47-2211.00
Will AI replace Sheet Metal Workers?
Sheet Metal Workers: AI can already handle 1 of 19 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs an efficient-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 19 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Sheet Metal Workers, from most to least exposed. 1 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verify that heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed, installed, and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards, such as those of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). | Estimated | Standard | |
| Hire, train, or supervise new employees or apprentices. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Inspect individual parts, assemblies, or installations, using measuring instruments, such as calipers, scales, or micrometers. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Fasten seams or joints together with welds, bolts, cement, rivets, solder, caulks, metal drive clips, or bonds to assemble components into products or to repair sheet metal items. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Transport prefabricated parts to construction sites for assembly and installation. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Install assemblies, such as flashing, pipes, tubes, heating and air conditioning ducts, furnace casings, rain gutters, or downspouts in supportive frameworks. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Maneuver completed roofing units into position for installation. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Perform building commissioning activities by completing mechanical inspections of a building's water, lighting, or heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Fabricate ducts for high efficiency heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to maximize efficiency of systems. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Lay out, measure, and mark dimensions and reference lines on material, such as roofing panels, using calculators, scribes, dividers, squares, or rulers. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Determine project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences, or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings, or written or verbal instructions. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Fabricate or alter parts at construction sites, using shears, hammers, punches, or drills. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Shape metal material over anvils, blocks, or other forms, using hand tools. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Trim, file, grind, deburr, buff, or smooth surfaces, seams, or joints of assembled parts, using hand tools or portable power tools. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Fasten roof panel edges or machine-made moldings to structures by nailing or welding. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Finish parts, using hacksaws or hand, rotary, or squaring shears. | Estimated | No tier |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 19 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 19 of 19. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
An efficient-tier model or lower covers 45% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 50% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 50% is hands-on.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 119,770
- Median annual wage
- $61,800
- Middle half of earners
- $47,830 to $81,610
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +2.4%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Insulation Workers, Mechanical 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure17
- Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure19
- Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure27
- Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 64% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure17
- Structural Iron and Steel Workers 64% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure18
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Sheet Metal Workers and AI
Will AI replace Sheet Metal Workers?
AI already handles 1 of the 19 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 21 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +2.4% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Sheet Metal Workers?
21 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 19 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 19 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Sheet Metal Workers tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Verify that heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed, installed, and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards, such as those of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). It is the only task that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
An efficient-tier model or lower covers 45% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 50% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Sheet Metal Workers, and what do they earn?
119,770 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $61,800 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +2.4% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Sheet Metal Workers. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/sheet-metal-workers
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