AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 43-5052.00
Will AI replace Postal Service Mail Carriers?
Postal Service Mail Carriers: AI can already handle 2 of 21 tasks; the work mostly needs a standard-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 21 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Postal Service Mail Carriers, from most to least exposed. 2 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scan labels on letters or parcels to confirm receipt. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Sort mail for delivery, arranging it in delivery sequence. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Obtain signed receipts for registered, certified, and insured mail, collect associated charges, and complete any necessary paperwork. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Return to the post office with mail collected from homes, businesses, and public mailboxes. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Deliver mail to residences and business establishments along specified routes by walking or driving, using a combination of satchels, carts, cars, and small trucks. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Meet schedules for the collection and return of mail. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Register, certify, and insure parcels and letters. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Sign for cash-on-delivery and registered mail before leaving the post office. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Hold mail for customers who are away from delivery locations. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Turn in money and receipts collected along mail routes. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Leave notices telling patrons where to collect mail that could not be delivered. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Bundle mail in preparation for delivery or transportation to relay boxes. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Travel to post offices to pick up the mail for routes or pick up mail from postal relay boxes. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Record address changes and redirect mail for those addresses. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Return incorrectly addressed mail to senders. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Answer customers' questions about postal services and regulations. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Sell stamps and money orders. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Complete forms that notify publishers of address changes. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Provide customers with change of address cards and other forms. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Report any unusual circumstances concerning mail delivery, including the condition of street letter boxes. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Maintain accurate records of deliveries. | Estimated | Efficient |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 21 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 21 of 21. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A standard-tier model or lower covers 91% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 100% of the work is something AI can address at some tier.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 328,820
- Median annual wage
- $60,550
- Middle half of earners
- $48,940 to $81,000
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- -3.5%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Postal Service Clerks 75% skill overlap, about 9 months to move Exposure33
- Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators 71% skill overlap, about 10 months to move Exposure68
- Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service 71% skill overlap, about 11 months to move Exposure76
- Couriers and Messengers 63% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure71
- Postmasters and Mail Superintendents 62% skill overlap, about 14 months to move Exposure61
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Postal Service Mail Carriers and AI
Will AI replace Postal Service Mail Carriers?
AI already handles 2 of the 21 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 57 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by -3.5% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Postal Service Mail Carriers?
57 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 21 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 21 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Postal Service Mail Carriers tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Scan labels on letters or parcels to confirm receipt; Sort mail for delivery, arranging it in delivery sequence. They are the tasks that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A standard-tier model or lower covers 91% of the role's importance-weighted task work. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Postal Service Mail Carriers, and what do they earn?
328,820 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $60,550 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of -3.5% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Postal Service Mail Carriers. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/postal-service-mail-carriers
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