AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 19-2012.00
Will AI replace Physicists?
Physicists: AI can already handle 5 of 10 tasks; the work mostly needs a standard-tier model.
Have a team in this role?
Get your free 10-role sample: send this role and up to nine others, and a founder sends a board-pack PDF within two business days.
Every task, scored
The 10 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Physicists, from most to least exposed. 5 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers. | Observed | Standard | |
| Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Write research proposals to receive funding. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Report experimental results by writing papers for scientific journals or by presenting information at scientific conferences. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Design computer simulations to model physical data so that it can be better understood. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Develop theories and laws on the basis of observation and experiments, and apply these theories and laws to problems in areas such as nuclear energy, optics, and aerospace technology. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Collaborate with other scientists in the design, development, and testing of experimental, industrial, or medical equipment, instrumentation, and procedures. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms. | Observed | Efficient | |
| Teach physics to students. | Estimated | Efficient |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 2 of 10 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 8 of 10. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A standard-tier model or lower covers 81% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 100% of the work is something AI can address at some tier.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 20,430
- Median annual wage
- $172,250
- Middle half of earners
- $111,720 to $222,760
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +4.0%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Physics Teachers, Postsecondary 68% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure42
- Astronomers 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure61
- Biochemists and Biophysicists 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure57
- Atmospheric and Space Scientists 64% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure66
- Materials Scientists 61% skill overlap, about 14 months to move Exposure57
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Physicists and AI
Will AI replace Physicists?
AI already handles 5 of the 10 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 58 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +4.0% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Physicists?
58 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 2 of the 10 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 8 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Physicists tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers; Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena; Write research proposals to receive funding. They are three of the 5 tasks that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A standard-tier model or lower covers 81% of the role's importance-weighted task work. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Physicists, and what do they earn?
20,430 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $172,250 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +4.0% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Physicists. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/physicists
Have a team in this role?
Get your free 10-role sample. Send this role and up to nine others, with no employee data, and a founder sends a PDF in board-pack format within two business days.
A founder replies within one business day.