AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 51-9196.00
Will AI replace Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders?
Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders: AI can already handle 1 of 14 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs a standard-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 14 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, from most to least exposed. 1 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Examine completed work to detect defects and verify conformance to work orders, and adjust machinery as necessary to correct production problems. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Install attachments to machines for gluing, folding, printing, or cutting. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Disassemble machines to maintain, repair, or replace broken or worn parts, using hand or power tools. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Observe operation of various machines to detect and correct machine malfunctions such as improper forming, glue flow, or pasteboard tension. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Cut products to specified dimensions, using hand or power cutters. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Place rolls of paper or cardboard on machine feed tracks, and thread paper through gluing, coating, and slitting rollers. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Monitor finished cartons as they drop from forming machines into rotating hoppers and into gravity feed chutes to prevent jamming. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Adjust guide assemblies, forming bars, and folding mechanisms according to specifications, using hand tools. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Start machines and move controls to regulate tension on pressure rolls, to synchronize speed of machine components, and to adjust temperatures of glue or paraffin. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Measure, space, and set saw blades, cutters, and perforators, according to product specifications. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Fill glue and paraffin reservoirs, and position rollers to dispense glue onto paperboard. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Stamp products with information such as dates, using hand stamps or automatic stamping devices. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Remove finished cores, and stack or place them on conveyors for transfer to other work areas. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Lift tote boxes of finished cartons, and dump cartons into feed hoppers. | Estimated | No tier |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 14 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 14 of 14. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A standard-tier model or lower covers 22% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 22% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 78% is hands-on.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 96,130
- Median annual wage
- $50,270
- Middle half of earners
- $44,920 to $60,180
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- -6.3%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 73% skill overlap, about 10 months to move Exposure23
- Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 73% skill overlap, about 10 months to move Exposure26
- Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 72% skill overlap, about 10 months to move Exposure22
- Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders 71% skill overlap, about 10 months to move Exposure27
- Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing 70% skill overlap, about 11 months to move Exposure24
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders and AI
Will AI replace Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders?
AI already handles 1 of the 14 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 20 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by -6.3% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders?
20 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 14 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 14 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Examine completed work to detect defects and verify conformance to work orders, and adjust machinery as necessary to correct production problems. It is the only task that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A standard-tier model or lower covers 22% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 78% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, and what do they earn?
96,130 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $50,270 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of -6.3% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/paper-goods-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders
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