AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 39-5092.00
Will AI replace Manicurists and Pedicurists?
Manicurists and Pedicurists: AI can already handle 14 of 18 tasks; the work mostly needs an efficient-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 18 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Manicurists and Pedicurists, from most to least exposed. 14 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apply undercoat and clear or colored polish onto nails with brush. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Shape and smooth ends of nails, using scissors, files, or emery boards. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Prepare nail cuticles with water and oil, using cuticle knives to push back cuticles and scissors or nippers to trim cuticles. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Prepare customers' nails in soapy water, using swabs, files, and orange sticks. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Remove previously applied nail polish, using liquid remover and swabs. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Use rotary abrasive wheels to shape and smooth nails or artificial extensions. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Schedule client appointments and accept payments. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Roughen surfaces of fingernails, using abrasive wheel. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Extend nails using powder, solvent, and paper forms attached to tips of customers' fingers to support and shape artificial nails. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Polish nails, using powdered polish and buffer. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Whiten underside of nails with white paste or pencils. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Promote and sell nail care products. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Assess the condition of clients' hands, remove dead skin, and massage hands. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Advise clients on nail care and use of products and colors. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Decorate clients' nails by piercing or attaching ornaments or designs. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Maintain supply inventories and records of client services. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Treat nails to repair or improve strength and resilience by wrapping. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Clean and sanitize tools and work environment. | Estimated | No tier |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 18 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 18 of 18. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
An efficient-tier model or lower covers 78% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 94% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 6% is hands-on.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 152,770
- Median annual wage
- $35,760
- Middle half of earners
- $34,010 to $41,650
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +7.0%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 63% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure32
- Barbers 58% skill overlap, about 15 months to move Exposure31
- Podiatrists 55% skill overlap, about 16 months to move Exposure60
- Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers 55% skill overlap, about 16 months to move Exposure23
- Shampooers 55% skill overlap, about 16 months to move Exposure57
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Manicurists and Pedicurists and AI
Will AI replace Manicurists and Pedicurists?
AI already handles 14 of the 18 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 62 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +7.0% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Manicurists and Pedicurists?
62 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 18 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 18 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Manicurists and Pedicurists tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Apply undercoat and clear or colored polish onto nails with brush; Shape and smooth ends of nails, using scissors, files, or emery boards; Prepare nail cuticles with water and oil, using cuticle knives to push back cuticles and scissors or nippers to trim cuticles. They are three of the 14 tasks that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
An efficient-tier model or lower covers 78% of the role's importance-weighted task work. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Manicurists and Pedicurists, and what do they earn?
152,770 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $35,760 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +7.0% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Manicurists and Pedicurists. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/manicurists-and-pedicurists
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