AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 51-4041.00

Will AI replace Machinists?

Machinists: AI can already handle 4 of 29 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs a standard-tier model.

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Every task, scored

The 29 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Machinists, from most to least exposed. 4 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.

Task AI exposure Evidence Model tier Importance
Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments, such as micrometers or vernier calipers. 80 Estimated Standard 4.8
Operate equipment to verify operational efficiency. 80 Estimated Standard 4.3
Advise clients about the materials being used for finished products. 74 Observed Standard 3.6
Evaluate machining procedures and recommend changes or modifications for improved efficiency or adaptability. 65 Estimated Standard 4.3
Support metalworking projects from planning and fabrication through assembly, inspection, and testing, using knowledge of machine functions, metal properties, and mathematics. 50 Estimated Frontier 4.4
Design fixtures, tooling, or experimental parts to meet special engineering needs. 50 Estimated Frontier 4.1
Test experimental models under simulated operating conditions, for purposes such as development, standardization, or feasibility of design. 50 Estimated Standard 4.0
Maintain machine tools in proper operational condition. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.5
Fit and assemble parts to make or repair machine tools. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.4
Install repaired parts into equipment or install new equipment. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.1
Install experimental parts or assemblies, such as hydraulic systems, electrical wiring, lubricants, or batteries into machines or mechanisms. 20 Estimated Efficient 3.6
Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders. 15 Estimated No tier 4.8
Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers. 15 Estimated No tier 4.6
Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations. 15 Estimated No tier 4.6
Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools. 15 Estimated No tier 4.5
Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products. 15 Estimated No tier 4.5
Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process. 15 Estimated No tier 4.5
Align and secure holding fixtures, cutting tools, attachments, accessories, or materials onto machines. 15 Estimated No tier 4.3
Confer with numerical control programmers to check and ensure that new programs or machinery will function properly and that output will meet specifications. 15 Estimated No tier 4.3
Dispose of scrap or waste material in accordance with company policies and environmental regulations. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Dismantle machines or equipment, using hand tools or power tools to examine parts for defects and replace defective parts where needed. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Lay out, measure, and mark metal stock to display placement of cuts. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Confer with engineering, supervisory, or manufacturing personnel to exchange technical information. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Separate scrap waste and related materials for reuse, recycling, or disposal. 15 Estimated No tier 4.0
Set up or operate metalworking, brazing, heat-treating, welding, or cutting equipment. 15 Estimated No tier 3.9
Check work pieces to ensure that they are properly lubricated or cooled. 15 Estimated No tier 3.9
Prepare working sketches for the illustration of product appearance. 15 Estimated No tier 3.9
Establish work procedures for fabricating new structural products, using a variety of metalworking machines. 15 Estimated No tier 3.9
Diagnose machine tool malfunctions to determine need for adjustments or repairs. 10 Estimated No tier 4.1

Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 1 of 29 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 28 of 29. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.

The model tier this role needs

A standard-tier model or lower covers 31% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 38% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 62% is hands-on.

Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.

Wages, employment and outlook

US employment
287,050
Median annual wage
$58,750
Middle half of earners
$47,570 to $67,700
Projected change, 2024 to 2034
0.0%

Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.

Adjacent roles

The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.

Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.

Questions about Machinists and AI

Will AI replace Machinists?

AI already handles 4 of the 29 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 27 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by 0.0% from 2024 to 2034.

What is the AI exposure of Machinists?

27 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 1 of the 29 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 28 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.

Which Machinists tasks can AI already do?

The tasks with the highest exposure are: Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments, such as micrometers or vernier calipers; Operate equipment to verify operational efficiency; Advise clients about the materials being used for finished products. They are three of the 4 tasks that reach 60 or more.

What AI model tier does this role need?

A standard-tier model or lower covers 31% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 62% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.

How many people work as Machinists, and what do they earn?

287,050 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $58,750 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of 0.0% from 2024 to 2034.

How to cite

Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.

JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Machinists. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/machinists

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