AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 15-1251.00
Will AI replace Computer Programmers?
Computer Programmers: AI can already handle 10 of 17 tasks; the work mostly needs a frontier-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 17 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Computer Programmers, from most to least exposed. 10 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Develop Web sites. | Observed | Frontier | |
| Correct errors by making appropriate changes and rechecking the program to ensure that the desired results are produced. | Observed | Frontier | |
| Write, analyze, review, and rewrite programs, using workflow chart and diagram, and applying knowledge of computer capabilities, subject matter, and symbolic logic. | Observed | Frontier | |
| Write, update, and maintain computer programs or software packages to handle specific jobs such as tracking inventory, storing or retrieving data, or controlling other equipment. | Observed | Frontier | |
| Perform or direct revision, repair, or expansion of existing programs to increase operating efficiency or adapt to new requirements. | Observed | Frontier | |
| Compile and write documentation of program development and subsequent revisions, inserting comments in the coded instructions so others can understand the program. | Observed | Standard | |
| Assign, coordinate, and review work and activities of programming personnel. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Consult with managerial, engineering, and technical personnel to clarify program intent, identify problems, and suggest changes. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Consult with and assist computer operators or system analysts to define and resolve problems in running computer programs. | Estimated | Standard | |
| Investigate whether networks, workstations, the central processing unit of the system, or peripheral equipment are responding to a program's instructions. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Collaborate with computer manufacturers and other users to develop new programming methods. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Conduct trial runs of programs and software applications to be sure they will produce the desired information and that the instructions are correct. | Observed | Standard | |
| Prepare detailed workflow charts and diagrams that describe input, output, and logical operation, and convert them into a series of instructions coded in a computer language. | Observed | Standard | |
| Write or contribute to instructions or manuals to guide end users. | Observed | Efficient | |
| Train subordinates in programming and program coding. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Train users on the use and function of computer programs. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Perform systems analysis and programming tasks to maintain and control the use of computer systems software as a systems programmer. | Estimated | Efficient |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 9 of 17 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 8 of 17. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 100% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 100% of the work is something AI can address at some tier.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 92,230
- Median annual wage
- $100,390
- Middle half of earners
- $75,850 to $130,680
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- -6.0%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Software Developers 68% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure60
- Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers 67% skill overlap, about 12 months to move Exposure32
- Computer Systems Analysts 64% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure67
- Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers 63% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure62
- Web Developers 60% skill overlap, about 14 months to move Exposure63
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Computer Programmers and AI
Will AI replace Computer Programmers?
AI already handles 10 of the 17 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 64 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by -6.0% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Computer Programmers?
64 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 9 of the 17 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 8 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Computer Programmers tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Develop Web sites; Correct errors by making appropriate changes and rechecking the program to ensure that the desired results are produced; Write, analyze, review, and rewrite programs, using workflow chart and diagram, and applying knowledge of computer capabilities, subject matter, and symbolic logic. They are three of the 10 tasks that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 100% of the role's importance-weighted task work. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Computer Programmers, and what do they earn?
92,230 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $100,390 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of -6.0% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Computer Programmers. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/computer-programmers
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