AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 53-2012.00

Will AI replace Commercial Pilots?

Commercial Pilots: AI can already handle 3 of 24 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs a frontier-tier model.

Have a team in this role?

Get your free 10-role sample: send this role and up to nine others, and a founder sends a board-pack PDF within two business days.

Get your free 10-role sample Book a 15-minute call

Every task, scored

The 24 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Commercial Pilots, from most to least exposed. 3 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.

Task AI exposure Evidence Model tier Importance
Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne. 80 Estimated Frontier 4.9
Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes. 65 Estimated Efficient 4.6
Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency. 65 Estimated Standard 3.8
Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures. 50 Estimated Efficient 4.7
Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments. 50 Estimated Standard 4.7
Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures. 50 Estimated Frontier 4.3
File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic. 50 Estimated Standard 4.0
Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports. 50 Estimated Standard 3.7
Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots. 35 Estimated Efficient 3.7
Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance. 20 Estimated Efficient 4.2
Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly. 15 Estimated No tier 5.0
Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required. 15 Estimated No tier 4.9
Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor. 15 Estimated No tier 4.9
Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights. 15 Estimated No tier 4.8
Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights. 15 Estimated No tier 4.8
Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment. 15 Estimated No tier 4.8
Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly. 15 Estimated No tier 4.6
Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems. 15 Estimated No tier 4.4
Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights. 15 Estimated No tier 4.4
Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption. 15 Estimated No tier 4.3
Rescue and evacuate injured persons. 15 Estimated No tier 4.2
Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate. 15 Estimated No tier 4.1
Supervise other crew members. 15 Estimated No tier 4.1
Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations. 15 Estimated No tier 4.1

Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 0 of 24 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 24 of 24. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.

The model tier this role needs

A frontier-tier model or lower covers 40% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 40% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 60% is hands-on.

Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.

Wages, employment and outlook

US employment
47,630
Median annual wage
$123,220
Middle half of earners
$84,540 to $190,440
Projected change, 2024 to 2034
+5.1%

Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.

Adjacent roles

The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.

Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.

Questions about Commercial Pilots and AI

Will AI replace Commercial Pilots?

AI already handles 3 of the 24 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 30 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +5.1% from 2024 to 2034.

What is the AI exposure of Commercial Pilots?

30 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 0 of the 24 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 24 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.

Which Commercial Pilots tasks can AI already do?

The tasks with the highest exposure are: Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne; Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes; Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency. They are the tasks that reach 60 or more.

What AI model tier does this role need?

A frontier-tier model or lower covers 40% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 60% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.

How many people work as Commercial Pilots, and what do they earn?

47,630 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $123,220 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +5.1% from 2024 to 2034.

How to cite

Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.

JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Commercial Pilots. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/commercial-pilots

Have a team in this role?

Get your free 10-role sample. Send this role and up to nine others, with no employee data, and a founder sends a PDF in board-pack format within two business days.

Get your free 10-role sample Book a 15-minute call

A founder replies within one business day.