AI exposure by occupation, O*NET 51-3011.00
Will AI replace Bakers?
Bakers: AI can already handle 1 of 18 tasks; most of the work is hands-on, and the part AI can address mostly needs a frontier-tier model.
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Every task, scored
The 18 tasks O*NET 30.3 lists for Bakers, from most to least exposed. 1 reach 60 or more, the level at which AI already handles a task.
| Task | AI exposure | Evidence | Model tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Develop new recipes for baked goods. | Observed | Frontier | |
| Direct or coordinate bakery deliveries. | Estimated | Frontier | |
| Prepare or maintain inventory or production records. | Estimated | Efficient | |
| Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Operate slicing or wrapping machines. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Order or receive supplies or equipment. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Observe color of products being baked, and adjust oven temperatures, humidity, or conveyor speeds accordingly. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes. | Estimated | No tier | |
| Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries. | Estimated | No tier |
Observed: scored from AI use recorded in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), 1 of 18 tasks. Estimated: scored from the task's O*NET 30.3 work activity, 17 of 18. Importance is O*NET's 1 to 5 rating of how central the task is. Model tier is the lowest tier that can do the task under the published rubric; "No tier" marks hands-on work.
The model tier this role needs
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 15% of the role's importance-weighted task work. 15% of the work is something AI can address at some tier, and 85% is hands-on.
Efficient, standard and frontier tiers come from the JobRoute model tier reference. The recommended tier is the lowest one that covers 80% of the work AI can address. How the method works.
Wages, employment and outlook
- US employment
- 236,200
- Median annual wage
- $37,160
- Middle half of earners
- $32,660 to $44,360
- Projected change, 2024 to 2034
- +5.6%
Employment and wages: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, national. Projection: BLS Employment Projections 2024 to 2034.
Adjacent roles
The occupations that reuse the most of this role's skills, with the usual time to move. These are the first places to look when you plan to redeploy or retrain people in this role.
- Food Batchmakers 69% skill overlap, about 11 months to move Exposure17
- Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders 65% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure14
- Chefs and Head Cooks 63% skill overlap, about 13 months to move Exposure23
- Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders 60% skill overlap, about 14 months to move Exposure14
- Cooks, Fast Food 58% skill overlap, about 15 months to move Exposure21
Skill overlap and transition time from the JobRoute role adjacency graph on O*NET 30.3 skills.
Questions about Bakers and AI
Will AI replace Bakers?
AI already handles 1 of the 18 tasks O*NET lists for this occupation, at a task exposure of 60 or more, and the role's importance-weighted exposure is 18 out of 100. JobRoute scores tasks, not whole jobs, so the score shows how much of the work changes rather than whether the job disappears. BLS projects employment to change by +5.6% from 2024 to 2034.
What is the AI exposure of Bakers?
18 out of 100 on JobRoute's task exposure measure, the importance-weighted average of the role's O*NET task scores. Higher means more of the work is AI-doable today. 1 of the 18 task scores are observed in the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026 release), and the other 17 are estimated from each task's O*NET work activity.
Which Bakers tasks can AI already do?
The tasks with the highest exposure are: Develop new recipes for baked goods. It is the only task that reach 60 or more.
What AI model tier does this role need?
A frontier-tier model or lower covers 15% of the role's importance-weighted task work, and 85% is hands-on work that no model tier covers. JobRoute assigns each task the lowest tier that can do it under a published rubric and recommends the lowest tier that covers 80% of the work AI can address.
How many people work as Bakers, and what do they earn?
236,200 people in the United States, with a median annual wage of $37,160 (BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025). BLS Employment Projections expect a change of +5.6% from 2024 to 2034.
How to cite
Data version 2026-11-02, JobRoute method v1.0.0. Download all occupations or this occupation as JSON. Methodology.
JobRoute (2026). AI exposure: Bakers. Data version 2026-11-02, method v1.0.0. Built on O*NET 30.3, BLS OEWS May 2025 and the Anthropic Economic Index (June 2026). CC BY 4.0. https://www.jobroute.ai/jobs/bakers
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